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Shukura vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shukura
Shukura
CANC
11:00
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
10/2/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Shukura53%
×Draw24%
Merani Martvili23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shukura
1.67
Merani Martvili
1.00

Shukura creates 67% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 83 away

creates per match

Shukura
1.71
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Shukura
0.74
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Shukura+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shukura ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shukura or draw
77%
Shukura or Merani Martvili
76%
Draw or Merani Martvili
47%

Winning margin

Shukura wins by 2+
29%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shukura 1+ goals
81%
Shukura 2+ goals
50%
Shukura 3+ goals
23%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
63%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
26%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shukura (draw refunded)
70%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shukura at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shukura attack 1.71 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Shukura defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shukura scores more
53%
level
24%
Merani Martvili scores more
23%

Shukura at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shukura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shukura face Merani Martvili (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Shukura hosting Merani Martvili. Match starts October 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.