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Shturmi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shturmi
Shturmi
Preview
16:00
Samtredia
Samtredia
8/22/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 22Sartichala Central Stadium
43%
Shturmi
model favours
43%28%29%

87% of Shturmi’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shturmi43%
×Draw28%
Samtredia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shturmi
1.29
Samtredia
1.01

Shturmi creates 28% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shturmi
1.25
Samtredia
1.16

allows per match

Shturmi
0.86
Samtredia
1.33

finishing

Shturmi+0.00on par
Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shturmi ↓

Samtredia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shturmi or draw
71%
Shturmi or Samtredia
72%
Draw or Samtredia
57%

Winning margin

Shturmi wins by 2+
19%
Samtredia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shturmi 1+ goals
72%
Shturmi 2+ goals
37%
Shturmi 3+ goals
14%
Samtredia 1+ goals
64%
Samtredia 2+ goals
27%
Samtredia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shturmi (draw refunded)
60%
Samtredia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shturmi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.33 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shturmi attack 1.25 + Samtredia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Samtredia attack 1.16 + Shturmi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shturmi scores more
43%
level
28%
Samtredia scores more
29%

Shturmi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shturmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shturmi score first in only 20% of matches
  • Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 27% of Shturmi’s matches
  • Samtredia win just 38% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Shturmi
WDDLL
Samtredia
LLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shturmi face Samtredia (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Shturmi hosting Samtredia. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shturmi host Samtredia at Sartichala Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.