Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shrewsbury vs York — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
14:00
York
York
5/8/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 46The Croud Meadow
37%
Shrewsbury
model favours
37%28%35%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shrewsbury37%
×Draw28%
York35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.22
York
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.04
York
1.13

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.21
York
1.40

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
65%
Shrewsbury or York
72%
Draw or York
63%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
16%
York wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
70%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
34%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
52%
York (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.04 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.22

York attack 1.13 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
37%
level
28%
York scores more
35%

Shrewsbury at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Shrewsbury and York have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face York (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting York. Match starts May 8, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host York at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.