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Shrewsbury vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
14:00
Northampton
Northampton
9/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6The Croud Meadow
Big match
38%
Northampton
model favours
34%28%38%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shrewsbury34%
×Draw28%
Northampton38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.14
Northampton
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 88 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.04
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.21
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
62%
Shrewsbury or Northampton
72%
Draw or Northampton
66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%
Northampton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
68%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
32%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
11%
Northampton 1+ goals
71%
Northampton 2+ goals
35%
Northampton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%
Northampton (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.04 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.14

Northampton attack 1.24 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
34%
level
28%
Northampton scores more
38%

Northampton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Northampton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Northampton
Balanced
42%PossessionBiggest gap48%
58%Pass accuracy65%
11.5Shots11.9
0.93xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyNorthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Shrewsbury
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–41–12–01–00–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Northampton
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face Northampton (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting Northampton. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host Northampton at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.