Shrewsbury vs Newport County: Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury

Preview

14:00

Newport County

4/3/2027

League Two · Round 39The Croud Meadow

46%

Shrewsbury

model favours

46%24%30%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Shrewsbury46%

×Draw24%

Newport County30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchNewport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.27

Shrewsbury

1.65

Newport County

1.27

Shrewsbury creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.18

creates per match

1.11

1.43

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.18

Newport County

1.11

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.43

Newport County

2.12

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.07on par

Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Newport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

70%

Shrewsbury or Newport County

76%

Draw or Newport County

54%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

24%

Newport County wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

81%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

49%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

23%

Newport County 1+ goals

72%

Newport County 2+ goals

36%

Newport County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

61%

Newport County (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.18 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.65

Newport County attack 1.11 + Shrewsbury defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

46%

level

24%

Newport County scores more

30%

Shrewsbury at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Shrewsbury

Direct / counter-attacking

Newport County

Balanced

42%Possession49%

58%Pass accuracy67%

11.5Shots11.6

0.93xGBiggest gap1.16

ShrewsburyNewport County

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Shrewsbury

WWDDL

County

DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury vs Newport County — Match Preview

Shrewsbury face Newport County on April 3, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shrewsbury host Newport County at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Shrewsbury vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Insights

Style Matchup

Head to Head

Shrewsbury vs Newport County — Match Preview