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Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
14:00
Exeter City
Exeter City
10/10/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 10The Croud Meadow
Big match
39%
Exeter City
model favours
34%27%39%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shrewsbury34%
×Draw27%
Exeter City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.18
Exeter City
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 97 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.04
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.21
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
61%
Shrewsbury or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
66%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
14%
Exeter City wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
69%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
33%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
12%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
37%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
47%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.04 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Shrewsbury defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
34%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
39%

Exeter City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Exeter City
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap51%
60%Pass accuracy63%
11.4Shots12.1
0.91xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyExeter City

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Exeter City
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 17%
0–20–20–30–00–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
City
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shrewsbury host Exeter City

October 10, 2026: Shrewsbury take on Exeter City in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shrewsbury host Exeter City at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.