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Shrewsbury vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Exeter City
Exeter City
C. Dunkley 90+3'
T. Bayliss 34'
M. Pennington 21'
J. Grounds 20'
P. Sweeney 17'
9/13/2022League OneLeague One · Round 9Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Shrewsbury41%
×Draw27%
Exeter City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.36
Exeter City
1.19

Shrewsbury creates 14% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 96 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.14
Exeter City
1.06

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
67%
Shrewsbury or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
59%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
19%
Exeter City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
74%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
39%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
16%
Exeter City 1+ goals
70%
Exeter City 2+ goals
33%
Exeter City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
55%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.58 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Exeter City attack 1.06 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
41%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
33%

Shrewsbury at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
G. NurseShrewsburyShrewsbury · M
8.2

Match Events

17'
P. Sweeney↳ R. Harper
20'
J. Grounds↳ J. Sparkes
21'
M. Pennington
34'
T. Bayliss
39'
Jonathan Grounds
67'
R. Bowman← J. Shipley
67'
C. Saydee← R. Street
72'
A. Hartridge← R. Harper
72'
J. Stansfield← J. Sparkes
90+5'
C. Winchester← T. Bayliss
90+6'
H. Smith← J. Grounds
90+5'
M. Jay← H. Kite
90+3'
C. Dunkley

Possession

49%Shrewsbury

Shots

18Shrewsbury

Pass accuracy

50%Shrewsbury

Statistics

ShrewsburyExeter
Overview
49%Possession51%
18Total Shots16
5Corners10
8Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots16
7On Target5
6Off Target8
5Blocked3
12Inside Box9
6Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
349Total Passes358
227Accurate Passes228
65%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1

League One: Shrewsbury 3–2 Exeter City

Shrewsbury beat Exeter City 3-2 in League One on September 13, 2022.

Goals: P. Sweeney (17'), J. Grounds (20'), M. Pennington (21'), T. Bayliss (34'), C. Dunkley (90+3').

Exeter City controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 18.

The match was played at Montgomery Waters Meadow in Shrewsbury, Shropshire.