Shrewsbury 0–1 Crewe: Result & Stats | League One

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Crewe

O. Dale 27'

2/2/2021

League One · Round 22Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Shrewsbury45%

×Draw26%

Crewe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

Shrewsbury

1.44

Crewe

1.09

Shrewsbury creates 32% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 50 away

1.14

creates per match

0.86

1.32

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Crewe

0.86

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Crewe

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Crewe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

71%

Shrewsbury or Crewe

74%

Draw or Crewe

55%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

22%

Crewe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

76%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

42%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

18%

Crewe 1+ goals

66%

Crewe 2+ goals

30%

Crewe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

61%

Crewe (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Crewe away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.74 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Crewe defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.44

Crewe attack 0.86 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

45%

level

26%

Crewe scores more

29%

Shrewsbury at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Richards

Crewe · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

27'

38'

57'

74'

76'

77'

D. Davis← D. Udoh

77'

79'

85'

89'

90+1'

C. Porter← M. Mandron

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyCrewe

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots6

5Corners2

18Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots6

4On Target4

8Off Target1

4Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

429Total Passes358

309Accurate Passes240

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2