Shrewsbury vs Colchester: Preview & Prediction

Shrewsbury

Preview

14:00

Colchester

9/26/2026

League Two · Round 8The Croud Meadow

43%

Shrewsbury

model favours

43%26%31%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury43%

×Draw26%

Colchester31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.22

Shrewsbury

1.48

Colchester

1.22

Shrewsbury creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.11

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.11

Colchester

1.11

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Colchester

1.85

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par

Colchester+0.20scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

69%

Shrewsbury or Colchester

74%

Draw or Colchester

57%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

21%

Colchester wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

77%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

43%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

19%

Colchester 1+ goals

70%

Colchester 2+ goals

34%

Colchester 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

58%

Colchester (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Colchester defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Colchester attack 1.11 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

43%

level

26%

Colchester scores more

31%

Shrewsbury at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.