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Shrewsbury vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
15:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
3/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 36The Croud Meadow
37%
Chesterfield
model favours
36%26%37%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury36%
×Draw26%
Chesterfield37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.31
Chesterfield
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.11
Chesterfield
1.34

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Chesterfield
1.52

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par
Chesterfield-0.05on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
63%
Shrewsbury or Chesterfield
74%
Draw or Chesterfield
64%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
16%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
73%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
38%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
14%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
74%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
38%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
49%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Chesterfield defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Chesterfield attack 1.34 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
36%
level
26%
Chesterfield scores more
37%

Chesterfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches
  • Shrewsbury raise their game against the top half — 29% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Style contrast — Shrewsbury play Direct / counter-attacking, Chesterfield Possession-dominant
  • Shrewsbury sit 19, Chesterfield 7 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
44%Possession60%
60%Pass accuracy78%
11.4Shots12.3
0.91xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyChesterfield

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury face Chesterfield (League Two)

League Two returns with Shrewsbury hosting Chesterfield. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shrewsbury host Chesterfield at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.