Shrewsbury 4–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

L. Leahy 90'

R. Bowman 83', 73', 6'

J. Iredale 58'

10/23/2021

League One · Round 15Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Shrewsbury45%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.10

Shrewsbury

1.46

Cambridge United

1.10

Shrewsbury creates 33% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 92 away

1.14

creates per match

0.89

1.32

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

71%

Shrewsbury or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

55%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

22%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

77%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

43%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

18%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

67%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

30%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

61%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

45%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

29%

Shrewsbury at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

R. Bowman

Shrewsbury · F

9.3

Match Events

6'

R. Bowman↳ G. Nurse

37'

K. McKenzie-Lyle← D. Mitov

45+8'

57'

58'

60'

65'

J. Daniels← E. Bennett

68'

Adam May

70'

James Brophy

71'

J. Weir← J. Brophy

73'

R. Bowman↳ S. Whalley

76'

A. Pierre← N. Ogbeta

78'

S. Smith← C. Masterson

83'

T. Bloxham← S. Whalley

83'

84'

85'

87'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyCambridge

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots5

4Corners5

7Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots5

9On Target1

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

8Inside Box1

8Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

355Total Passes395

264Accurate Passes291

74%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls10

1Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0