Shrewsbury 2–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

R. Street 53'

L. Leahy 3'

J. Coburn 70'

5/2/2023

League One · Round 38Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Shrewsbury42%

×Draw27%

Bristol Rovers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Shrewsbury

1.37

Bristol Rovers

1.14

Shrewsbury creates 20% more chances

Season form · 153 home / 131 away

1.14

creates per match

0.95

1.32

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

69%

Shrewsbury or Bristol Rovers

73%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

58%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

20%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

75%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

40%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

16%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

68%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

32%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

57%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

42%

level

27%

Bristol Rovers scores more

31%

Shrewsbury at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

J. Coburn

Bristol Rovers · F

7.7

Match Events

3'

23'

36'

53'

57'

S. Sinclair← L. Bogarde

57'

C. MacDonald← L. Gordon

57'

57'

58'

59'

61'

65'

70'

78'

82'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBristol

Overview

31%Possession69%

6Total Shots21

3Corners7

14Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots21

2On Target4

3Off Target10

1Blocked7

5Inside Box12

1Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

251Total Passes559

154Accurate Passes458

61%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0