Shrewsbury 1–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Blackpool

D. Udoh 38'

12/29/2020

League One · Round 21Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Shrewsbury35%

×Draw28%

Blackpool37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.22

Shrewsbury

1.17

Blackpool

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 153 home / 134 away

1.14

creates per match

1.11

1.32

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.14

Blackpool

1.11

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Blackpool

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

63%

Shrewsbury or Blackpool

72%

Draw or Blackpool

65%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

14%

Blackpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

69%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

33%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

11%

Blackpool 1+ goals

70%

Blackpool 2+ goals

34%

Blackpool 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

48%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.32 · 153 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.14 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

35%

level

28%

Blackpool scores more

37%

Blackpool at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

S. Walker

Blackpool · G

7.6

Match Events

38'

D. Udoh

41'

Oliver Norburn

48'

Josh Vela

65'

O. Turton← J. Gabriel

65'

G. Ward← E. Robson

65'

D. Mitchell← D. Kemp

65'

J. Yates← S. Kaikai

66'

S. Tracey← J. Daniels

67'

D. Edwards← J. Žambůrek

72'

Gary Madine

78'

S. Golbourne← S. Whalley

83'

L. Clarke← D. Udoh

83'

B. Lubala← K. Anderson

85'

Shilow Tracey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBlackpool

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots12

3Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target3

4Off Target4

3Blocked5

7Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

44%Possession56%

358Total Passes438

229Accurate Passes304

64%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3