Shrewsbury 0–1 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Shrewsbury

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barnsley

A. Phillips 10'

11/12/2022

League One · Round 18Montgomery Waters Meadow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Shrewsbury32%

×Draw26%

Barnsley43%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShrewsburyExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.46

Shrewsbury

1.22

Barnsley

1.46

Barnsley creates 20% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 118 away

1.13

creates per match

1.59

1.32

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Shrewsbury

1.13

Barnsley

1.59

allows per match

Shrewsbury

1.32

Barnsley

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw

57%

Shrewsbury or Barnsley

74%

Draw or Barnsley

68%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

13%

Barnsley wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

70%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

34%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

12%

Barnsley 1+ goals

77%

Barnsley 2+ goals

43%

Barnsley 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

43%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 155 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.13 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shrewsbury scores more

32%

level

26%

Barnsley scores more

43%

Barnsley at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Kitching

Barnsley · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

27'

67'

67'

68'

T. Bloxham← C. Saydee

70'

Jordan Shipley

74'

J. Benson← S. Tedić

75'

R. Street← R. Bowman

81'

J. Bailey← J. Shipley

81'

C. Winchester← M. Pennington

85'

R. Cundy← T. Edwards

85'

J. Aitchison← H. Kane

90+6'

Cheyenne Dunkley

90+6'

Luke Leahy

90+7'

Bradley Collins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShrewsburyBarnsley

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots14

6Corners3

6Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target2

6Off Target10

2Blocked2

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box8

Passing

56%Possession44%

382Total Passes309

245Accurate Passes191

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls10

5Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0