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Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37The Croud Meadow
Big match
44%
Shrewsbury
model favours
44%27%30%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Shrewsbury44%
×Draw27%
Accrington ST30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shrewsbury
1.39
Accrington ST
1.10

Shrewsbury creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Shrewsbury
1.11
Accrington ST
0.88

allows per match

Shrewsbury
1.32
Accrington ST
1.66

finishing

Shrewsbury-0.02on par
Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shrewsbury ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shrewsbury or draw
70%
Shrewsbury or Accrington ST
73%
Draw or Accrington ST
56%

Winning margin

Shrewsbury wins by 2+
21%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Shrewsbury 1+ goals
75%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
40%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
16%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
67%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
59%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shrewsbury at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shrewsbury attack 1.11 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.39

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Shrewsbury defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shrewsbury scores more
44%
level
27%
Accrington ST scores more
30%

Shrewsbury at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shrewsbury will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
Accrington ST
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap47%
60%Pass accuracy62%
11.5Shots11.4
0.91xG0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShrewsburyAccrington ST

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Shrewsbury
4
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 30%
2–00–00–10–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shrewsbury
WWDDL
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shrewsbury vs Accrington ST — Match Preview

Shrewsbury face Accrington ST on March 26, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Shrewsbury host Accrington ST at The Croud Meadow.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.