Shortan vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026
Shortan score first in only 4% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
Shortan76%
BuxDu6%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shortan creates 449% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No75
- Yes25
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shortan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shortan at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches
BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shortan attack 1.45 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.92
BuxDu attack 0.00 + Shortan defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 76%?"
Shortan at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 76% does not mean "Shortan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Shortan sit 2, BuxDu 12 in the table
- Shortan and BuxDu have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings between these teams
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shortan host BuxDu on Saturday, 7 November 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the Pro League A 2026/2027 season.
Shortan vs BuxDu — Match Preview
Shortan face BuxDu on November 7, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Shortan host BuxDu at Stadion Guzor.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.