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Sholing vs Chertsey Town — League #60 2026

Sholing
Sholing
Preview
14:00
Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town
8/22/2026League #60League #60 · Round 4
81%
Sholing
model favours
81%14%5%
2–0
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
34%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sholing81%
×Draw14%
Chertsey Town5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sholing
2.46
Chertsey Town
0.46

Sholing creates 435% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sholing
2.67
Chertsey Town
0.25

allows per match

Sholing
0.67
Chertsey Town
2.25

finishing

Sholing+0.00on par
Chertsey Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sholing ↓

Chertsey Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sholing or draw
95%
Sholing or Chertsey Town
86%
Draw or Chertsey Town
19%

Winning margin

Sholing wins by 2+
59%
Chertsey Town wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Sholing 1+ goals
91%
Sholing 2+ goals
70%
Sholing 3+ goals
44%
Chertsey Town 1+ goals
37%
Chertsey Town 2+ goals
8%
Chertsey Town 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Sholing (draw refunded)
94%
Chertsey Town (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sholing at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Chertsey Town away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sholing attack 2.67 + Chertsey Town defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Chertsey Town attack 0.25 + Sholing defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sholing scores more
81%
level
14%
Chertsey Town scores more
5%

Sholing at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sholing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Sholing
WLLWD
Town
WLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sholing face Chertsey Town (League #60)

League #60 returns with Sholing hosting Chertsey Town. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.