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Shirak vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

Shirak
Shirak
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
FC Noah
FC Noah
10/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Gyumri City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Shirak28%
×Draw27%
FC Noah45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shirak
1.01
FC Noah
1.35

FC Noah creates 34% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 105 away

creates per match

Shirak
0.82
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

Shirak
1.32
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

Shirak+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shirak ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shirak or draw
55%
Shirak or FC Noah
73%
Draw or FC Noah
72%

Winning margin

Shirak wins by 2+
10%
FC Noah wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shirak 1+ goals
64%
Shirak 2+ goals
27%
Shirak 3+ goals
8%
FC Noah 1+ goals
74%
FC Noah 2+ goals
39%
FC Noah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shirak (draw refunded)
39%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shirak at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.32 · 90 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shirak attack 0.82 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

FC Noah attack 1.39 + Shirak defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shirak scores more
28%
level
27%
FC Noah scores more
45%

FC Noah at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Shirak 0–2 FC Noah

FC Noah beat Shirak 2-0 in Premier League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Gyumri City Stadium in Gyumri.