Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Rotor Volgograd

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Preview

15:00

Rotor Volgograd

9/5/2026

First League · Round 10Stadion Shinnik

36%

Rotor Volgograd

model favours

34%30%36%

0–1

likely score

66%

under 2.5 goals

41%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl34%

×Draw30%

Rotor Volgograd36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shinnik YaroslavlExpected goals in this matchRotor Volgograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.05

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.00

Rotor Volgograd

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 40 away

1.05

creates per match

1.15

0.95

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.05

Rotor Volgograd

1.15

allows per match

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.95

Rotor Volgograd

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shinnik Yaroslavl ↓

Rotor Volgograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Shinnik Yaroslavl or draw

64%

Shinnik Yaroslavl or Rotor Volgograd

70%

Draw or Rotor Volgograd

66%

Winning margin

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

13%

Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

63%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

26%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

8%

Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals

65%

Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals

28%

Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

48%

Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shinnik Yaroslavl at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 1.05 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

34%

level

30%

Rotor Volgograd scores more

36%

Rotor Volgograd at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rotor Volgograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Yaroslavl

DDDDW

Volgograd

LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff