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Shimizu S-pulse vs Yokohama F. Marinos — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
09:30
Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
8/15/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
42%
Yokohama F. Marinos
model favours
33%25%42%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse33%
×Draw25%
Yokohama F. Marinos42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.30
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.50

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.14
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.47

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.54
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.47

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
58%
Shimizu S-pulse or Yokohama F. Marinos
75%
Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos
67%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
73%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
37%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
14%
Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
78%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
44%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
44%
Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.14 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.47 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
33%
level
25%
Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
42%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches
  • Yokohama F. Marinos win just 30% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Yokohama F. Marinos
Direct / counter-attacking
50%PossessionBiggest gap44%
79%Pass accuracy71%
12.0Shots10.9
1.17xG1.21
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseYokohama F. Marinos

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Draws
3
Yokohama F. Marinos
Avg goals: 4.4BTTS: 80%
0–31–11–33–23–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Marinos
DWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Yokohama F. Marinos (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Yokohama F. Marinos. Match starts August 15, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Yokohama F. Marinos at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.