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Shimizu S-pulse vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
10:00
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
10/17/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 10IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
38%
Gamba Osaka
model favours
36%26%38%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse36%
×Draw26%
Gamba Osaka38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.35
Gamba Osaka
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.17
Gamba Osaka
1.21

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
Gamba Osaka
1.54

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Gamba Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
62%
Shimizu S-pulse or Gamba Osaka
74%
Draw or Gamba Osaka
64%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
16%
Gamba Osaka wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
74%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
39%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
15%
Gamba Osaka 1+ goals
75%
Gamba Osaka 2+ goals
41%
Gamba Osaka 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
48%
Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.17 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gamba Osaka attack 1.21 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
36%
level
26%
Gamba Osaka scores more
38%

Gamba Osaka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gamba Osaka score first in only 25% of matches
  • Style contrast — Shimizu S-pulse play Attack-heavy, Gamba Osaka Defensively solid
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Attack-heavy
Gamba Osaka
Defensively solid
50%Possession54%
78%Pass accuracy79%
14.0Shots12.4
1.59xGBiggest gap1.15
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseGamba Osaka

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Shimizu S-pulse
2
Draws
2
Gamba Osaka
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 40%
1–22–20–00–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Osaka
WLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Gamba Osaka (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Gamba Osaka. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Gamba Osaka at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.