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Shimizu S-pulse vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
Preview
10:00
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
4/29/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Big match
38%
Fagiano Okayama
model favours
36%26%38%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse36%
×Draw26%
Fagiano Okayama38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.30
Fagiano Okayama
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 24 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
Fagiano Okayama
1.46

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
62%
Shimizu S-pulse or Fagiano Okayama
74%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
64%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
16%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
73%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
37%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
14%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
74%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
38%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
49%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
36%
level
26%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
38%

Fagiano Okayama at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fagiano Okayama score first in only 33% of matches
  • Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
Fagiano Okayama
Direct / counter-attacking
51%Possession40%
79%Pass accuracy71%
12.4Shots15.1
1.24xGBiggest gap1.57
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Shimizu S-pulseFagiano Okayama

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Shimizu S-pulse
2
Draws
2
Fagiano Okayama
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
0–21–11–21–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
S-pulse
WLDLL
Okayama
LWDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shimizu S-pulse face Fagiano Okayama (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Shimizu S-pulse hosting Fagiano Okayama. Match starts April 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shimizu S-pulse host Fagiano Okayama at IAI Stadium Nihondaira.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.