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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
8/12/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Mission Hills Football Base Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.31%
×Draw25%
Shandong Luneng44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.27
Shandong Luneng
1.54

Shandong Luneng creates 21% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 122 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Shandong Luneng
1.77

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Shandong Luneng
1.44

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
56%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Shandong Luneng
75%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
69%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
13%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
72%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
36%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
14%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
45%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
42%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
31%
level
25%
Shandong Luneng scores more
44%

Shandong Luneng at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0–2 Shandong Luneng

Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 in Super League on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Haikou.