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Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Chengdu Better City — Super League 2018

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
6/12/2022Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J.29%
×Draw26%
Chengdu Better City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.11
Chengdu Better City
1.45

Chengdu Better City creates 31% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 72 away

creates per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.09
Chengdu Better City
1.58

allows per match

Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.32
Chengdu Better City
1.13

finishing

Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par
Chengdu Better City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shijiazhuang Y. J. ↓

Chengdu Better City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Shijiazhuang Y. J. or draw
55%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. or Chengdu Better City
74%
Draw or Chengdu Better City
71%

Winning margin

Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
11%
Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
67%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
30%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
10%
Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
77%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
42%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
39%
Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.13 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.09 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chengdu Better City attack 1.58 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
29%
level
26%
Chengdu Better City scores more
45%

Chengdu Better City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0–0 Chengdu Better City

Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Chengdu Better City drew 0-0 in Super League on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.