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Shevardeni 1906 vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Shevardeni 1906
Shevardeni 1906
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
9/10/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 23Tsentraluri Stadioni Kaspi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Shevardeni 190643%
×Draw24%
Merani Martvili33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shevardeni 1906
1.67
Merani Martvili
1.45

Shevardeni 1906 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 83 away

creates per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.69
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Shevardeni 1906
1.63
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Shevardeni 1906+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shevardeni 1906 ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shevardeni 1906 or draw
67%
Shevardeni 1906 or Merani Martvili
76%
Draw or Merani Martvili
57%

Winning margin

Shevardeni 1906 wins by 2+
22%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Shevardeni 1906 1+ goals
81%
Shevardeni 1906 2+ goals
50%
Shevardeni 1906 3+ goals
23%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
77%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
42%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Shevardeni 1906 (draw refunded)
56%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shevardeni 1906 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shevardeni 1906 attack 1.69 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Shevardeni 1906 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shevardeni 1906 scores more
43%
level
24%
Merani Martvili scores more
33%

Shevardeni 1906 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Shevardeni 1906 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shevardeni 1906 vs Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili beat Shevardeni 1906 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 10, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni Kaspi in Kaspi.