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Sheriff vs Dacia-Buiucani — Cupa 2020

Sheriff
Sheriffadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
4/5/2023CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsBolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sheriff59%
×Draw19%
Dacia-Buiucani22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff
2.40
Dacia-Buiucani
1.43

Sheriff creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sheriff
3.47
Dacia-Buiucani
2.50

allows per match

Sheriff
0.35
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33

finishing

Sheriff+0.00on par
Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff ↓

Dacia-Buiucani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Sheriff or draw
78%
Sheriff or Dacia-Buiucani
81%
Draw or Dacia-Buiucani
41%

Winning margin

Sheriff wins by 2+
37%
Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sheriff 1+ goals
91%
Sheriff 2+ goals
69%
Sheriff 3+ goals
42%
Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
76%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
42%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sheriff (draw refunded)
73%
Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Dacia-Buiucani away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff attack 3.47 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Dacia-Buiucani attack 2.50 + Sheriff defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sheriff scores more
59%
level
19%
Dacia-Buiucani scores more
22%

Sheriff at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sheriff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Sheriff 3–1 Dacia-Buiucani

Sheriff beat Dacia-Buiucani 3-1 in Cupa on April 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.