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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Petrocub — Cupa 2020

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspoladvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Petrocub
Petrocub
4/26/2023CupaCupa · Semi-finalsMalaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol75%
×Draw16%
Petrocub10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.55
Petrocub
0.80

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 219% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
3.47
Petrocub
1.25

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.35
Petrocub
1.63

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Petrocub+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Petrocub →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
90%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Petrocub
84%
Draw or Petrocub
25%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
53%
Petrocub wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
92%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
72%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
46%
Petrocub 1+ goals
55%
Petrocub 2+ goals
19%
Petrocub 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
89%
Petrocub (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Petrocub away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 3.47 + Petrocub defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.55

Petrocub attack 1.25 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
75%
level
16%
Petrocub scores more
10%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Petrocub

Sheriff Tiraspol beat Petrocub 2-0 in Cupa on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.