Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 Milsami Orhei: Result & Stats

Sheriff Tiraspol

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Milsami Orhei

9/11/2022

Super Liga · Round 7Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol61%

×Draw22%

Milsami Orhei18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheriff TiraspolExpected goals in this matchMilsami Orhei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.94

Sheriff Tiraspol

1.95

Milsami Orhei

0.94

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 107% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 97 away

2.63

creates per match

1.45

0.43

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

2.63

Milsami Orhei

1.45

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol

0.43

Milsami Orhei

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Milsami Orhei+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Milsami Orhei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw

82%

Sheriff Tiraspol or Milsami Orhei

78%

Draw or Milsami Orhei

39%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+

36%

Milsami Orhei wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals

86%

Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals

58%

Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals

31%

Milsami Orhei 1+ goals

61%

Milsami Orhei 2+ goals

24%

Milsami Orhei 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)

78%

Milsami Orhei (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.43 · 105 matches

Milsami Orhei away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.63 + Milsami Orhei defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.95

Milsami Orhei attack 1.45 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more

61%

level

22%

Milsami Orhei scores more

18%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff