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Sheriff Tiraspol vs CSF Bălți — Cupa 2020

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspoladvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
4/2/2025CupaCupa · Quarter-finalsMalaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol78%
×Draw14%
CSF Bălți8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.67
CSF Bălți
0.74

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 261% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
3.47
CSF Bălți
1.14

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.35
CSF Bălți
1.86

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
92%
Sheriff Tiraspol or CSF Bălți
86%
Draw or CSF Bălți
22%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
56%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
93%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
74%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
49%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
52%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
17%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
91%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 3.47, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 3.47 + CSF Bălți defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.67

CSF Bălți attack 1.14 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
78%
level
14%
CSF Bălți scores more
8%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Sheriff Tiraspol 4–1 CSF Bălți

Sheriff Tiraspol beat CSF Bălți 4-1 in Cupa on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.