Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sheriff Tiraspol vs CSF Bălți — Super Liga 2026

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSF Bălți
CSF Bălți
4/13/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 5Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol70%
×Draw19%
CSF Bălți11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.12
CSF Bălți
0.72

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 194% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 69 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
2.63
CSF Bălți
1.01

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
0.43
CSF Bălți
1.61

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
CSF Bălți+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

CSF Bălți →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
89%
Sheriff Tiraspol or CSF Bălți
81%
Draw or CSF Bălți
30%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
45%
CSF Bălți wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
88%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
62%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
35%
CSF Bălți 1+ goals
51%
CSF Bălți 2+ goals
16%
CSF Bălți 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
86%
CSF Bălți (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 2.63, concedes 0.43 · 105 matches

CSF Bălți away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.61 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 2.63 + CSF Bălți defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.12

CSF Bălți attack 1.01 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
70%
level
19%
CSF Bălți scores more
11%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Sheriff Tiraspol 2–0 CSF Bălți

Sheriff Tiraspol beat CSF Bălți 2-0 in Super Liga on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Bolshaya Sportivnaya Arena in Tiraspol.