Ansan Greeners 1–2 Daejeon Citizen: Result & Stats

Ansan Greeners

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Daejeon Citizen

9/27/2020

K League 2 · Round 21Ansan Wa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ansan Greeners30%

×Draw27%

Daejeon Citizen43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ansan GreenersExpected goals in this matchDaejeon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.39

Ansan Greeners

1.12

Daejeon Citizen

1.39

Daejeon Citizen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 154 home / 91 away

0.99

creates per match

1.30

1.48

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Ansan Greeners

0.99

Daejeon Citizen

1.30

allows per match

Ansan Greeners

1.48

Daejeon Citizen

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ansan Greeners+0.00on par

Daejeon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansan Greeners ↓

Daejeon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ansan Greeners or draw

57%

Ansan Greeners or Daejeon Citizen

73%

Draw or Daejeon Citizen

70%

Winning margin

Ansan Greeners wins by 2+

12%

Daejeon Citizen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Ansan Greeners 1+ goals

67%

Ansan Greeners 2+ goals

31%

Ansan Greeners 3+ goals

10%

Daejeon Citizen 1+ goals

75%

Daejeon Citizen 2+ goals

40%

Daejeon Citizen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ansan Greeners (draw refunded)

41%

Daejeon Citizen (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansan Greeners at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 154 matches

Daejeon Citizen away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.25 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansan Greeners attack 0.99 + Daejeon Citizen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.12

Daejeon Citizen attack 1.30 + Ansan Greeners defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ansan Greeners scores more

30%

level

27%

Daejeon Citizen scores more

43%

Daejeon Citizen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Daejeon Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.