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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tianjin Teda
Tianjin Teda
6/16/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC36%
×Draw26%
Tianjin Teda38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.31
Tianjin Teda
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 120 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Tianjin Teda
1.11

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Tianjin Teda
1.52

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Tianjin Teda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
62%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Tianjin Teda
74%
Draw or Tianjin Teda
64%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
16%
Tianjin Teda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
73%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
38%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
14%
Tianjin Teda 1+ goals
75%
Tianjin Teda 2+ goals
40%
Tianjin Teda 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
48%
Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Tianjin Teda scores more
38%

Tianjin Teda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Tianjin Teda

Shenzhen Ruby FC and Tianjin Teda drew 0-0 in Super League on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Shenzhen.