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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
5/19/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC40%
×Draw25%
Dalian Aerbin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.47
Dalian Aerbin
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.09
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.63
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
65%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Dalian Aerbin
75%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
60%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
19%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
77%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
43%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
18%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
74%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
39%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
53%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.63 · 68 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.09 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
40%
level
25%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
35%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Dalian Aerbin

Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 2-1 in Super League on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre in Shenzhen.