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Shenyang Urban vs Qingdao Youth Island — Super League 2026

Shenyang Urban
Shenyang Urban
Preview
11:35
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
7/25/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Olympic Sports Centre Stadium
Big match
47%
Shenyang Urban
model favours
47%23%30%

Both teams score in 92% of Qingdao Youth Island’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shenyang Urban47%
×Draw23%
Qingdao Youth Island30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenyang Urban
1.78
Qingdao Youth Island
1.37

Shenyang Urban creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 39 away

creates per match

Shenyang Urban
1.67
Qingdao Youth Island
1.18

allows per match

Shenyang Urban
1.56
Qingdao Youth Island
1.90

finishing

Shenyang Urban+0.00on par
Qingdao Youth Island+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenyang Urban ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shenyang Urban or draw
70%
Shenyang Urban or Qingdao Youth Island
77%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
53%

Winning margin

Shenyang Urban wins by 2+
25%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shenyang Urban 1+ goals
83%
Shenyang Urban 2+ goals
53%
Shenyang Urban 3+ goals
26%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
75%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
40%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shenyang Urban (draw refunded)
61%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenyang Urban at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.90 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenyang Urban attack 1.67 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.78

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.18 + Shenyang Urban defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Shenyang Urban scores more
47%
level
23%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
30%

Shenyang Urban at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shenyang Urban will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Qingdao Youth Island score first in only 31% of matches
  • 44% of Qingdao Youth Island’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Urban
DWLLW
Island
DLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shenyang Urban host Qingdao Youth Island

July 25, 2026: Shenyang Urban take on Qingdao Youth Island in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shenyang Urban host Qingdao Youth Island at Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.