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Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. — Premier Division 2026

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
Preview
18:45
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's Athl.
8/7/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 27Tolka Park
Big match
44%
Shelbourne
model favours
44%28%28%

Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shelbourne44%
×Draw28%
St Patrick's Athl.28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
1.34
St Patrick's Athl.
1.02

Shelbourne creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.02
St Patrick's Athl.
1.11

allows per match

Shelbourne
0.94
St Patrick's Athl.
0.67

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par
St Patrick's Athl.-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

St Patrick's Athl. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
72%
Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl.
72%
Draw or St Patrick's Athl.
56%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
20%
St Patrick's Athl. wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
74%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
39%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
15%
St Patrick's Athl. 1+ goals
64%
St Patrick's Athl. 2+ goals
27%
St Patrick's Athl. 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
61%
St Patrick's Athl. (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

St Patrick's Athl. away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + St Patrick's Athl. defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.34

St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.11 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shelbourne scores more
44%
level
28%
St Patrick's Athl. scores more
28%

Shelbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • St Patrick's Athl. are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • St Patrick's Athl. score first in only 28% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • 72% of St Patrick's Athl.’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches
  • 41% of Shelbourne’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
St Patrick's Athl.
Defensively solid
56%Possession55%
80%Pass accuracy78%
14.5Shots15.1
1.73xGBiggest gap1.26
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%
1–02–30–00–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shelbourne
WDDWD
Athl.
DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shelbourne face St Patrick's Athl. (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Shelbourne hosting St Patrick's Athl.. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Shelbourne host St Patrick's Athl. at Tolka Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.