Shelbourne 1–0 Galway United: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Galway United

3/4/2024

Premier Division · Round 4Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Shelbourne41%

×Draw29%

Galway United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchGalway United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.01

Shelbourne

1.22

Galway United

1.01

Shelbourne creates 21% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 48 away

1.23

creates per match

0.90

1.11

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Shelbourne

1.23

Galway United

0.90

allows per match

Shelbourne

1.11

Galway United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Galway United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Galway United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

70%

Shelbourne or Galway United

71%

Draw or Galway United

59%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

18%

Galway United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

70%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

34%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

12%

Galway United 1+ goals

64%

Galway United 2+ goals

27%

Galway United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

57%

Galway United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.11 · 94 matches

Galway United away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 1.23 + Galway United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.22

Galway United attack 0.90 + Shelbourne defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shelbourne scores more

41%

level

29%

Galway United scores more

30%

Shelbourne at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff