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Shelbourne vs Drogheda United — Premier Division 2026

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
Preview
18:45
Drogheda United
Drogheda United
9/4/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 30Tolka Park
Big match
63%
Shelbourne
model favours
63%20%17%

Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shelbourne63%
×Draw20%
Drogheda United17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
2.08
Drogheda United
0.98

Shelbourne creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.02
Drogheda United
1.03

allows per match

Shelbourne
0.94
Drogheda United
2.15

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par
Drogheda United+0.41scores more

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Drogheda United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
83%
Shelbourne or Drogheda United
80%
Draw or Drogheda United
37%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
39%
Drogheda United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
87%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
61%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
34%
Drogheda United 1+ goals
62%
Drogheda United 2+ goals
26%
Drogheda United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
79%
Drogheda United (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

Drogheda United away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.15 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + Drogheda United defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.08

Drogheda United attack 1.03 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shelbourne scores more
63%
level
20%
Drogheda United scores more
17%

Shelbourne at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Drogheda United score first in only 27% of matches
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches
  • Both teams score in 70% of Drogheda United’s matches
  • Drogheda United win just 23% of their away games
  • 41% of Shelbourne’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
Drogheda United
Direct / counter-attacking
56%Possession38%
80%Pass accuracy59%
14.3Shots10.4
1.73xGBiggest gap1.08
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
ShelbourneDrogheda United

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Drogheda United
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 80%
2–23–42–11–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Shelbourne
WDDWD
United
DWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Shelbourne host Drogheda United

September 4, 2026: Shelbourne take on Drogheda United in Premier Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Shelbourne host Drogheda United at Tolka Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.