Shelbourne 1–1 Bohemians: Result & Stats

Shelbourne

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bohemians

A. Coote 14'

D. Grant 12'

8/23/2024

Premier Division · Round 28Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Shelbourne44%

×Draw24%

Bohemians32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ShelbourneExpected goals in this matchBohemians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.39

Shelbourne

1.66

Bohemians

1.39

Shelbourne creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.02

creates per match

1.84

0.94

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Shelbourne

2.02

Bohemians

1.84

allows per match

Shelbourne

0.94

Bohemians

1.29

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Shelbourne-0.02on par

Bohemians+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Bohemians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw

68%

Shelbourne or Bohemians

76%

Draw or Bohemians

56%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+

23%

Bohemians wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals

81%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

49%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

23%

Bohemians 1+ goals

75%

Bohemians 2+ goals

40%

Bohemians 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

58%

Bohemians (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.94 · 6 matches

Bohemians away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.02 + Bohemians defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bohemians attack 1.84 + Shelbourne defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Shelbourne scores more

44%

level

24%

Bohemians scores more

32%

Shelbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

D. Grant

Bohemians · F

8.7

Match Events

12'

D. Grant↳ P. Kirk

14'

21'

31'

49'

66'

66'

L. Burt← H. Wood

67'

Ross Tierney

72'

Mark Coyle

72'

F. Piszczek← J. Akintunde

74'

J. Martin← M. Smith

82'

J. Clarke← A. McDonnell

86'

87'

88'

90+5'

90+3'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShelbourneBohemians

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots15

1Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target5

3Off Target7

4Blocked3

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

468Total Passes447

363Accurate Passes347

78%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0