Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

Sheffield Wednesday

Preview

15:00

Plymouth

11/14/2026

League One · Round 15Hillsborough

Big match

54%

Sheffield Wednesday

model favours

54%23%23%

Plymouth are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

54%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday54%

×Draw23%

Plymouth23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.06

Sheffield Wednesday

1.77

Plymouth

1.06

Sheffield Wednesday creates 67% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 114 away

2.04

creates per match

1.39

0.73

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.04

Plymouth

1.39

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Plymouth

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

77%

Sheffield Wednesday or Plymouth

77%

Draw or Plymouth

46%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

30%

Plymouth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

83%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

53%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

26%

Plymouth 1+ goals

65%

Plymouth 2+ goals

29%

Plymouth 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

70%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.50 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Plymouth attack 1.39 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

54%

level

23%

Plymouth scores more

23%

Sheffield Wednesday at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Plymouth have scored in 15 games running
Plymouth have won 5 in a row
Plymouth score first in only 28% of matches
Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches
Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches
72% of Plymouth’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Sheffield Wednesday

Balanced

Plymouth

Attack-heavy

50%Possession49%

69%Pass accuracy68%

12.8ShotsBiggest gap13.4

—xG2.12

Sheffield WednesdayPlymouth

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

5

Sheffield Wednesday

0

Draws

3

Plymouth

Avg goals: 3BTTS: 25%

3–04–01–00–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Wednesday

WDLWL

Plymouth

WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff