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Sheffield Wednesday vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
Preview
14:00
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
3/29/2027League OneLeague One · Round 38Hillsborough
Big match
59%
Sheffield Wednesday
model favours
59%23%18%

Burton Albion score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday59%
×Draw23%
Burton Albion18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Wednesday
1.81
Burton Albion
0.90

Sheffield Wednesday creates 101% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 176 away

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday
2.04
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday
0.73
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw
82%
Sheffield Wednesday or Burton Albion
77%
Draw or Burton Albion
41%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
34%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
84%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
54%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
27%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
59%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
23%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
76%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more
59%
level
23%
Burton Albion scores more
18%

Sheffield Wednesday at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches
  • Burton Albion win just 24% of their away games
  • Burton Albion matches are rarely goalless — only 2.8% end 0-0
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • Their last 9 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Wednesday
Balanced
Burton Albion
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession43%
69%Pass accuracy64%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap9.9
—xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield WednesdayBurton Albion

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Sheffield Wednesday
2
Draws
4
Burton Albion
Avg goals: 4BTTS: 78%
2–34–22–35–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wednesday
WDLWL
Albion
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sheffield Wednesday host Burton Albion

March 29, 2027: Sheffield Wednesday take on Burton Albion in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sheffield Wednesday host Burton Albion at Hillsborough.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.