Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Bristol City

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bristol City

B. Bannan 85' (pen)

12/22/2019

Championship · Round 23Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw26%

Bristol City37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.30

Sheffield Wednesday

1.29

Bristol City

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 62 away

1.24

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Bristol City

1.34

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.28scores less

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

63%

Sheffield Wednesday or Bristol City

74%

Draw or Bristol City

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

16%

Bristol City wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Bristol City 1+ goals

73%

Bristol City 2+ goals

37%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

50%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.50 · 49 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.24 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

26%

Bristol City scores more

37%

Sheffield Wednesday at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Bannan

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.4

Match Events

11'

Korey Smith

30'

J. Börner← M. Fox

61'

N. Eliasson← J. Hunt

61'

K. Palmer← A. Weimann

70'

Massimo Luongo

76'

S. Winnall← J. Rhodes

81'

Kasey Palmer

84'

Daniel Bentley

85'

B. BannanPenalty

86'

A. Semenyo← T. Rowe

90'

J. Pelupessy← M. Luongo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBristol

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots3

8Corners1

14Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots3

6On Target1

5Off Target1

4Blocked1

11Inside Box2

4Outside Box1

Passing

52%Possession48%

384Total Passes350

277Accurate Passes233

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3