Sheffield Wednesday 4–2 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Blackburn

Marco Matias 86'

D. Iorfa 79'

A. Nuhiu 60'

S. Fletcher 10'

E. Bennett 88'

C. Conway 72'

3/16/2019

Championship · Round 38Hillsborough Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 49+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday38%

×Draw27%

Blackburn35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Blackburn

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 59 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

1.50

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Blackburn

1.01

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Blackburn

1.38

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.28scores less

Blackburn+0.06on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

65%

Sheffield Wednesday or Blackburn

73%

Draw or Blackburn

62%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

17%

Blackburn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Blackburn 1+ goals

71%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

52%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.50 · 49 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.24 + Blackburn defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackburn attack 1.01 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

38%

level

27%

Blackburn scores more

35%

Sheffield Wednesday at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

E. Bennett

Blackburn · M

8.4

Match Events

10'

J. Pelupessy← S. Hutchinson

10'

S. Fletcher↳ D. Iorfa

40'

Steven Fletcher

52'

Sam Winnall

55'

Marco Matias← S. Winnall

56'

C. Conway← H. Reed

58'

A. Nuhiu← S. Fletcher

60'

A. Nuhiu↳ B. Bannan

68'

A. Armstrong← D. Graham

68'

J. Buckley← C. Evans

72'

C. Conway↳ J. Rothwell

74'

Rolando Aarons

79'

D. Iorfa↳ A. Nuhiu

81'

Tom Lees

86'

Marco Matias↳ B. Bannan

88'

E. Bennett↳ B. Dack

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBlackburn

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots8

2Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

3Outside Box1

Passing

41%Possession59%

367Total Passes533

254Accurate Passes424

69%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

14Fouls11

4Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3