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Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday
Preview
14:00
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
10/17/2026League OneLeague One · Round 11Hillsborough
60%
Sheffield Wednesday
model favours
60%23%17%

Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday60%
×Draw23%
AFC Wimbledon17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Wednesday
1.81
AFC Wimbledon
0.84

Sheffield Wednesday creates 115% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday
2.04
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday
0.73
AFC Wimbledon
1.58

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw
83%
Sheffield Wednesday or AFC Wimbledon
77%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
40%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+
35%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals
84%
Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals
54%
Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals
27%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
57%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
21%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)
78%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.81

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more
60%
level
23%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
17%

Sheffield Wednesday at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sheffield Wednesday
Balanced
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
50%Possession47%
69%Pass accuracy68%
12.8ShotsBiggest gap10.6
—xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield WednesdayAFC Wimbledon

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wednesday
WDLWL
Wimbledon
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sheffield Wednesday host AFC Wimbledon

October 17, 2026: Sheffield Wednesday take on AFC Wimbledon in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sheffield Wednesday host AFC Wimbledon at Hillsborough.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.