Sheffield Utd 1–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

8/24/2019

Premier League · Round 3Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sheffield Utd35%

×Draw22%

Leicester43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.85

Sheffield Utd

1.64

Leicester

1.85

Leicester creates 13% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.28

creates per match

1.55

2.15

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.28

Leicester

1.55

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.15

Leicester

2.00

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.38scores less

Leicester-0.37scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

57%

Sheffield Utd or Leicester

78%

Draw or Leicester

65%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

81%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

49%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

23%

Leicester 1+ goals

84%

Leicester 2+ goals

55%

Leicester 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

45%

Leicester (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.15 · 10 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.28 + Leicester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.64

Leicester attack 1.55 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

level

22%

Leicester scores more

43%

Leicester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff