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Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
Preview
16:30
Birmingham
Birmingham
8/15/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Bramall Lane
Big match
51%
Sheffield Utd
model favours
51%26%24%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Sheffield Utd51%
×Draw26%
Birmingham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.55
Birmingham
0.98

Sheffield Utd creates 58% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.73
Birmingham
0.95

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.01
Birmingham
1.37

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less
Birmingham-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
76%
Sheffield Utd or Birmingham
74%
Draw or Birmingham
49%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
26%
Birmingham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
79%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
46%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
20%
Birmingham 1+ goals
62%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
68%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.37 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.55

Birmingham attack 0.95 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
51%
level
26%
Birmingham scores more
24%

Sheffield Utd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
Birmingham
Balanced
53%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy71%
13.3Shots12.4
1.53xGBiggest gap1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheffield UtdBirmingham

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

3
Sheffield Utd
4
Draws
1
Birmingham
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 63%
1–13–02–11–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Utd
WWDWW
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sheffield Utd host Birmingham

August 15, 2026: Sheffield Utd take on Birmingham in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sheffield Utd host Birmingham at Bramall Lane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.