Shanghai SIPG 3–0 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Shanghai SIPG

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

7/17/2019

Super League · Round 18Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shanghai SIPG69%

×Draw18%

Hebei Zhongji13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai SIPGExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.92

Shanghai SIPG

2.38

Hebei Zhongji

0.92

Shanghai SIPG creates 159% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 67 away

2.42

creates per match

0.94

0.90

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Shanghai SIPG

2.42

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Shanghai SIPG

0.90

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai SIPG+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai SIPG ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Shanghai SIPG or draw

87%

Shanghai SIPG or Hebei Zhongji

82%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

31%

Winning margin

Shanghai SIPG wins by 2+

47%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shanghai SIPG 1+ goals

91%

Shanghai SIPG 2+ goals

68%

Shanghai SIPG 3+ goals

42%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

60%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

23%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Shanghai SIPG (draw refunded)

84%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai SIPG attack 2.42 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Shanghai SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Shanghai SIPG scores more

69%

level

18%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

13%

Shanghai SIPG at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Shanghai SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff