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Shanghai SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Shanghai SIPG
Shanghai SIPG
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
6/14/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shanghai SIPG48%
×Draw23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai SIPG
1.84
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.37

Shanghai SIPG creates 34% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shanghai SIPG
2.42
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Shanghai SIPG
0.90
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Shanghai SIPG+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai SIPG ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai SIPG or draw
71%
Shanghai SIPG or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
77%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
52%

Winning margin

Shanghai SIPG wins by 2+
27%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shanghai SIPG 1+ goals
84%
Shanghai SIPG 2+ goals
55%
Shanghai SIPG 3+ goals
28%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
75%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
40%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Shanghai SIPG (draw refunded)
63%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai SIPG at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.90 · 119 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai SIPG attack 2.42 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.84

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Shanghai SIPG defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shanghai SIPG scores more
48%
level
23%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
29%

Shanghai SIPG at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shanghai SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shanghai SIPG 0–2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shanghai SIPG 2-0 in Super League on June 14, 2019.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.