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Shanghai Shenhua vs Shandong Luneng — FA Cup 2019

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
11/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · FinalsSuzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua27%
×Draw21%
Shandong Luneng52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.43
Shandong Luneng
2.05

Shandong Luneng creates 43% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.20
Shandong Luneng
3.00

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.10
Shandong Luneng
0.65

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
48%
Shanghai Shenhua or Shandong Luneng
79%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
73%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
12%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
76%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
42%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
17%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
87%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
61%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
34%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.20 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.43

Shandong Luneng attack 3.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
27%
level
21%
Shandong Luneng scores more
52%

Shandong Luneng at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Shandong Luneng

Shanghai Shenhua beat Shandong Luneng 1-0 in FA Cup on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.