Gyeongnam FC 1–0 FC Anyang: Result & Stats

Gyeongnam FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Anyang

8/2/2020

K League 2 · Round 13Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gyeongnam FC37%

×Draw26%

FC Anyang37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gyeongnam FCExpected goals in this matchFC Anyang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.37

Gyeongnam FC

1.36

FC Anyang

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 125 away

1.34

creates per match

1.34

1.40

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.34

FC Anyang

1.34

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC

1.40

FC Anyang

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

FC Anyang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

FC Anyang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw

63%

Gyeongnam FC or FC Anyang

74%

Draw or FC Anyang

63%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

17%

FC Anyang wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

74%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

39%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

16%

FC Anyang 1+ goals

75%

FC Anyang 2+ goals

40%

FC Anyang 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

50%

FC Anyang (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

FC Anyang away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + FC Anyang defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Anyang attack 1.34 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more

37%

level

26%

FC Anyang scores more

37%

Gyeongnam FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.