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Shandong Luneng vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. — Super League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
8/11/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shandong Luneng62%
×Draw20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J.18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.15
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.06

Shandong Luneng creates 103% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
2.23
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1.25

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
0.88
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2.06

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Shijiazhuang Y. J.+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Shijiazhuang Y. J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
82%
Shandong Luneng or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
80%
Draw or Shijiazhuang Y. J.
38%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
39%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
88%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
63%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
36%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1+ goals
65%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2+ goals
29%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
78%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Shijiazhuang Y. J. away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Shijiazhuang Y. J. defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.15

Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.25 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
62%
level
20%
Shijiazhuang Y. J. scores more
18%

Shandong Luneng at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Shandong Luneng 2 – 1 Shijiazhuang Y. J.

Shandong Luneng beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-1 in Super League on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Center Central Stadium in Guangzhou.